FPL Price Changes: End-of-Season Risers and Fallers

Data current as of: 2 May 2026 Window covered: GW35 (locked) to GW38 Assumptions: Net transfer figures from the FPL Pilot price-change predictor pre-GW36. Final price changes of the season happen mid-GW38 and lock immediately afterwards.

End-of-season price changes are a strange beast. With only three gameweeks of transfers left, you might think squad value is irrelevant. It is not. Squad value carries over to next season, every 0.1m moved in your favour now is 0.1m of flexibility in your 2026/27 wildcard, and the GW38 price-change cliff makes the timing of your last few transfers more important than at any other point in the season.

This is the time-sensitive snapshot. Top 5 names moving in each direction, what to act on before the deadline, and the one trap to avoid.

Why end-of-season price changes still matter

Three reasons.

Squad value carries. Your team value at the end of GW38 sets your starting bank for 2026/27 (after a small reset that affects sell-on profits). A £103m squad now is meaningfully easier to wildcard out of than a £100m one.

Fewer transfers means each one needs to land. If you are sitting on one or two free transfers across GW36 to GW38, the price you pay matters more because you cannot recover from a bad call by churning the squad.

The GW38 cliff. Final price changes happen during the GW38 window and stop afterwards. Once GW38 deadline locks, prices are frozen for the season. Anyone you sell after the cliff sells at exactly purchase price, no profit, no loss.

Top 5 risers (act this week if you want them)

Pulled from the price-change predictor on 2 May 2026, ranked by net transfers in.

Player	Pos	Price	Net transfers	Verdict
Cherki (MCI)	MID	£6.5m	+13,632	Buy. DGW36, sub-15% own, top non-Haaland projection
Haaland (MCI)	FWD	£14.6m	+13,420	Already owned by ~50%, just hold
Sarr (CRY)	MID	£6.3m	+10,057	Buy if you need a sub-£7m mid for GW38
O’Reilly (MCI)	DEF	£5.2m	+9,177	Buy. 12.01 projected GW36, cheap DGW defender
Mateta (CRY)	FWD	£7.6m	+8,469	Buy if you do not own a pen #1 forward

Two of these (Muñoz at +7,248 and Lacroix at +5,722, both Crystal Palace defenders) are the next two on the list and worth a separate mention. The Crystal Palace clean-sheet bandwagon is rolling. Muñoz already rose +£0.1m today and Lacroix is the next likely jump.

Top 5 fallers (sell now or eat the loss)

Player	Pos	Price	Net transfers	Verdict
Thiago (BRE)	FWD	£7.4m	-9,731	Sell. Brentford run-in is poor, no replacement upside
João Pedro (CHE)	FWD	£7.5m	-8,491	Sell unless you need the body
J.Timber (ARS)	DEF	£6.0m	-6,141	Already dropped today. Sell if not playing him
Cunha (MUN)	FWD	£8.1m	-4,025	Hip injury flagged, sell if you cannot bench him
Palmer (CHE)	MID	£10.5m	-3,879	Sell if you have a better mid replacement

Liverpool attackers (Ekitiké, Szoboszlai) are also bleeding heavily, both already dropped £0.1m today. With Salah out for the season, the entire Liverpool attacking corps is a hold-only-if-you-must situation for the run-in.

What to do this week

Three buckets.

Act now (this week): Cherki and O’Reilly. Both are City DGW36 assets, both are rising, both are still under the ownership wave. Every day you wait costs you 0.1m and a piece of the swing.

Act if relevant to your squad: Mateta and Sarr. These are differentials covered in detail in our run-in differentials piece. Buy them if they fit your structure, do not chase the price rise alone.

Sell now: Cunha and J.Timber if you own them. Cunha has a hip injury flagged 4 days ago, Timber already dropped £0.1m today. The longer you hold, the more 0.1m drops you eat.

Hold despite the falling price: Palmer. Yes the price is falling. But if your alternative is a fixture-poor £8m midfielder, the 0.1m price drop is less damaging than the missed haul potential in a single GW38 fixture.

The GW38 cliff

The final price change of the season happens during the GW38 window. Once GW38 locks, prices are frozen until the 2026/27 reset. This has two practical implications.

You cannot bank profit after GW38 deadline. Any rising asset you own going into GW38, sell on the deadline if you want the profit. Hold past it and the squad-value carry still applies, but you cannot rotate that 0.1m into a different player anymore.

Your final transfer of the season is your highest-leverage one. Whatever you bring in for GW38 is the player you live with through the season-end. Use a free transfer aggressively if it lines up with the GW38 captaincy framework.

The one trap to avoid

Do not transfer in a falling player just because they are cheap. The fall is usually a leading indicator: ownership is dropping for a reason (poor fixture, injury, form). The classic 2025/26 example is the Liverpool attackers right now: cheap on paper, but the underlying reason (Salah out, season-end deprioritisation) means the cheap price reflects a real loss of upside, not a buying opportunity.

The exception is Palmer: the price drop is sentiment-driven (poor recent form, Chelsea fixture noise), not a structural injury or rotation problem. If you are happy with the underlying numbers, the falling price is the entry point.

Chip planning interaction

If you are still holding Free Hit or Bench Boost, the rising City and Crystal Palace assets are exactly what you want in your one-week chip squad. The bench boost chip guide walks through the full structure for an end-of-season activation.

See exactly which transfers to make for your squad based on price moves and projections →

Net transfer figures from the FPL Pilot price-change predictor on 2 May 2026. Predictions are statistical, not guaranteed. The FPL price-change algorithm is opaque, but net transfers above ~10,000 in either direction usually trigger a 0.1m move within 24 to 48 hours.